Gold still has upside, despite new record high

© Reuters – Gold prices climbed to a record high Thursday, but BofA Securities thinks more is still to come.

AT 10:05 ET (14:05 GMT), traded at $2,187.48 an ounce, having earlier climbed to a record high of $2,222.14, while expiring in April stood at $2,189.25 an ounce, just off a record high of $2,224.80.

These gains occurred after the Federal Reserve signaled that it was still considering rate cuts this year, hurting the U.S. dollar, a scenario that would boost gold, especially after rising interest rates dented the yellow metal over the past two years.  

BofA Securities still sees owning gold as one of its top trades for 2024.

Firstly, gold will act as a great hedge for stocks, the bank said, in a note dated March 20, with the metal having the lowest correlation to the of almost any asset class. It can thus act as a haven if inflation reaccelerates or growth slows later this year.

Secondly, central banks are buying at an unprecedented pace, purchasing more than 2,100 tons in the past two years, thus creating strong demand.

Finally, this is the third major gold rally in two decades, and the first two (2004-2011; 2015-2020) saw big inflows to gold ETFs. Households have tended to miss this rally, however, with total ETF gold holdings, a proxy for investor demand, having fallen by 25%.

If investors enter the market, this could help push the gold price to the bank’s potential long-term upside around $2500-$2600 an ounce.

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