Money managers stayed relatively flat on Gold positioning. Economists at TD Securities expect long positions to grow once data turns convincingly negative.
Ambiguity with respect to the direction Gold prices are expected to take
“There is definite ambiguity with respect to the direction Gold prices are expected to take. Some speculative investors see Gold trending higher amid the implied Fed pause, which explains the long position increases. In sharp contrast, others see prices trending down in response to a firm Dollar, elevated rates and a bond sell off.”
“Before money managers take a more one sided view on where the yellow metal will go, markets will need to see more economic data.”
“For now, it is likely that money managers may want to continue to reduce length. However, once data turns convincingly negative and the Fed is seen to pivot ahead of hitting its inflation target, longs will grow robustly.”