Gold’s ‘record march higher set to continue,’ Goldman says

Gold’s roughly 8% month-to-date rally has room to grow with the precious metal poised to hit $2,300 an ounce by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

On Monday futures gained to trade as high as $2,182 an ounce. The precious metal is considered a safe haven during times of geopolitical tensions and when interest rates decrease. Last week, the Federal Reserve continued to signal that it would lower interest rates three times this year.

The Fed meeting “reinforced the market’s (and ours) expectations that three cuts are likely this year, lending renewed support to gold to test and surpass March’s earlier record high,” wrote a team of analysts led by Samantha Dart.

Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded their average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090 to $2,180 per ounce, targeting a move to $2,300 by the end of the year.

The analysts forecast gold prices in the near term will move toward another consolidation phase, barring any geopolitical surprise. However, “a substantive retracement lower will likely also be limited by resilience in physical buying channels,” wrote Dart, citing Chinese imports of the precious metal.

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

“Nonetheless, in the midterm we continue to hold a constructive view on gold underpinned by eventual Fed easing, which should crucially reactivate the largely dormant ETF buying,” wrote Dart.

Bullion’s price increases have been disconnected from recent outflows seen in gold-related ETFs. Strategists believe investors have been rotating money into bitcoin ETFs as the token roared toward new highs earlier this month.

Central banks have been buying up gold at historic levels, helping to drive up demand over the past couple of years.

Adjusted for inflation, gold hit a record in 1980 when it hit $850 per ounce, which would equal almost $3,200 in today’s dollars.

Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

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